Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby Tim S » Thu Jan 27, 2011 10:27 am

I must say I am extremely surprised BoM would issue a 4 day forecast chart with a TC marked for the position they have it at for 10am Sunday. It would be extremely unlikely for TC Bianca to survive much further south than about 26 degrees south as a TC, I mean its going to encounter sea surface temps of less than 25C from around 23 degrees south. The sea surface temp where it is plotted for 10am Sunday is 21C! The only reason Alby survived at the strength she did for so long was that she was travelling at a relatively high speed which meant she could maintain her momentum for long enough to make it almost as far as the SW corner at Cat 1 strength. TC Bianca, although fast moving for a system off the NW coast isn't going to be moving much faster once she rounds the NW cape so will succumb to the lower sea surface temps a lot faster.

Granted wind sheer levels are expected to be relatively good until around Sunday morning but that's not going to help much.

My prediction is TC Bianca will be no more come around lunchtime to mid afternoon Saturday, at which stage she will be so far off the coast that if she is dragged over the SW coast she won't have much left in the way of rain or wind.
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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby BigStorm » Thu Jan 27, 2011 10:37 am

Well the BOM doesn't seem to agree withn you becuase they still have it as a category 2 on Saturday morning and have it west of Geraldton.
Re Sea Surface Temps not being favourable I have to disagree. As someone else has already posted for this Cyclone the Leeuwin curent is running strong for this time of year and is dragging warm water all the way past Cape Leeuwin from the North with temps around 24-26c as far south as Perth (not ideal for cyclone development but it won die as fast as they normally do) and this together with the favourable sheer has resulted in the forecast for it to stay relatively well formed as it moves south.

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby Tim S » Thu Jan 27, 2011 10:37 am

You should all now notice that there is a forum rule for this forum, please ensure that this is followed as although it is extremely handy to have external images and articles posted onto the forum, if it is not done correctly you and ultimately myself (as forum owner) are breaching copyright by doing so.
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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby 1987 hurricane » Thu Jan 27, 2011 10:49 am

A first mention by the BOM that some moisture will affect us from Bianca this weekend causing some rain and thunderstorms. Very interesting :-)

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby noggles » Thu Jan 27, 2011 11:30 am

All charts considering, the bom aren't overly enthusiastic still.

IDW12300
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Perth Forecast
Issued at 11:30 am WST on Thursday 27 January 2011

Warning summary
Nil.

Forecast for Thursday
The chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon or evening. Light to
moderate E/SE winds, shifting moderate to fresh S/SW during the afternoon.

Precis: Afternoon shower or storm risk.
City: Max 37
Mandurah: Max 33

UV Alert: 8:20 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]
Fire Danger: Coastal Plain: VERY HIGH
Hills: HIGH

Forecast for Friday
Humid and partly cloudy. Light to moderate N/NE winds, shifting moderate to
fresh NW/SW in the afternoon and evening.

Precis: Humid, partly cloudy.
City: Min 23 Max 38
Mandurah: Min 23 Max 34

Saturday Humid. Afternoon shower or storm. Min 24 Max 38
Sunday Humid. Afternoon shower or storm. Min 24 Max 36
Monday Humid. Partly cloudy. Min 22 Max 34
Tuesday Partly cloudy. Min 20 Max 38
Wednesday Partly cloudy. Min 20 Max 31

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm WST Thursday.

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby BigStorm » Thu Jan 27, 2011 11:54 am

I think the BOM are playing it safe at the moment (as they usually do with midday forecasts) will be intersting to see how the forecast changes at 4.30pm today and I also think they are too scared to predict good rain for Perth from the cyclone until it gets south of about Carnarvon regardless of what their own forecast charts and models are saying.

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby Vinny » Thu Jan 27, 2011 12:22 pm

I have never seen a January forecast for Perth with humidity mentioned for 4 days in a row :shock: :( .

Weatherzone's long range 48 hour forecast tends to overestimate the dew point, it was saying by now it would be 20 in the city and it is only 14-15deg now.
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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby noggles » Thu Jan 27, 2011 12:34 pm

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDG00074.shtml

latest 4 day charts seem to align with bom's lack of enthusiasm.

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby brayden » Thu Jan 27, 2011 12:38 pm

ah well hopefully the leftovers is delicious ;)
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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby @weather_wa » Thu Jan 27, 2011 2:27 pm

Whow, Just had a really big gust of wind at my place all of the sudden! Jandakot station is down at the moment?

It's very hot and the AC doesn't seem to be making any difference today.

So far the maximums for the metro area so far:

Champion Lakes - 37.2 at 2:00pm
Jandakot - 38.7 at 2:03pm
Pearce - 39.0 at 2:05pm
Perth - 37.8 at 2:18pm
Perth Airport - 38.9 at 2:06pm

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby stokesy » Thu Jan 27, 2011 2:34 pm

Jane Brook / Midland has hit 40.6C so far today: http://www.amnet.net.au/~storms_wa/weather/

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby Vinny » Thu Jan 27, 2011 2:37 pm

EOS wrote:Whow, Just had a really big gust of wind at my place all of the sudden! Jandakot station is down at the moment?

It's very hot and the AC doesn't seem to be making any difference today.

So far the maximums for the metro area so far:

Champion Lakes - 37.2 at 2:00pm
Jandakot - 38.7 at 2:03pm
Pearce - 39.0 at 2:05pm
Perth - 37.8 at 2:18pm
Perth Airport - 38.9 at 2:06pm



Janadakot station has been on and off all day.

Our air con is not working the best, even though the relative humidity is 25 percent the dew point is 15deg which is close to being too humid.
Yeppoon Annual Average Rainfall is (BOM) = 982.5mm
2012 Yeppoon 976.8mm
2014:1114.2mm

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby @weather_wa » Thu Jan 27, 2011 2:43 pm

Lightning showing up on the WZ Radar South of Geraldton.

Cloud starting to build up, and the sky is becoming dark at my place now.

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby Vinny » Thu Jan 27, 2011 2:56 pm

Sky becoming dark ? It is still blue here.
Yeppoon Annual Average Rainfall is (BOM) = 982.5mm
2012 Yeppoon 976.8mm
2014:1114.2mm

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby BigStorm » Thu Jan 27, 2011 3:06 pm

Latest BOM cclone track map has it west south west of Gero (closer to coast than previous track) on Saturday arvo but only Cat 1
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml
so who knows what perth will get out of it. The 4.30 forecast will be interesting

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby Vinny » Thu Jan 27, 2011 3:10 pm

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will decay into a low pressure system over the ocean
west of the Lower West coast on Sunday, with a broad trough still over the
state.


http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/notes.shtml
Yeppoon Annual Average Rainfall is (BOM) = 982.5mm
2012 Yeppoon 976.8mm
2014:1114.2mm

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby stokesy » Thu Jan 27, 2011 3:11 pm

Yeah, small line of storms just past Eneabba heading south at this stage. Hopefully still some moisture & heat around for them to head Perth's way.

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby stokesy » Thu Jan 27, 2011 3:19 pm

Just hit 41C at 3:15pm: http://www.amnet.net.au/~storms_wa/weather/
And tomorrow is supposed to be hotter in Perth. Think I need to buy a inflatable pool!

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby Duideka » Thu Jan 27, 2011 3:51 pm

My refrig A/C is struggling today, only getting it down to 23c 8) 8)

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Re: Jogging into January with humidity and heatwaves 2011

Postby Storm Wolf » Thu Jan 27, 2011 3:59 pm

Christ, went out for a beer and a bit of business stuff and got a thorough taste of the hot weather! Some nice cloud build up in places, looking good to the North of me. And to the south kinda but I'm looking north right now.
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