2017 Weather Discussion

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Discussions on Weather related to Western Australia including Perth weather, Western Australia weather and Tropical activity including Cyclones affecting WA and NT.
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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby Cmon Aussie Cmon » Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:41 am

CC lightning overhead. Another heavy downpour, Mt Lawley should have the ton up soon

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby adamD » Fri Feb 10, 2017 3:42 am

100mm mark broken now.

Main band has moved to south, there is still some bubbling of clouds offshore from lancelin, it may drag towards Perth but won't get as heavy falls as we did earlier.
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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby Vinny » Fri Feb 10, 2017 7:47 am

The weather has gone crazy. 100mm overnight in Perth, 40 degree days in the east, it should be the other way round!!!

--

179mm is our average in Feb and had 2mm so far lol

50mm last month average is 150mm

Last wet month was September...

Seems to be raining in Adelaide, Perth etc not on the east coast lol

Will this help dam levels at all?
Yeppoon Annual Average Rainfall is (BOM) = 982.5mm
2012 Yeppoon 976.8mm
2014:1114.2mm

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby davo » Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:25 am

Well, interesting is right! These rainfall numbers are nuts! Nearly the whole state is affected.

Still raining solidly down here in Collie, over 50mm for the event here so far. GFS has at least another 6 hours of heavy stuff, but not sure about that. Might be going to fill in behind this band.

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby davo » Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:27 am

BTW the 'Weathernews' on Weatherzone obviously thinks Australia only has an east coast...nothing about our record-breaking rains on there.

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby supersmell » Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:06 pm

Bloody windy now in High Wycombe

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby Vinny » Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:21 am

davo wrote:BTW the 'Weathernews' on Weatherzone obviously thinks Australia only has an east coast...nothing about our record-breaking rains on there.



http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/wa-w ... ain/525857

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/wa-t ... end/525842


http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/sogg ... rth/525847
Yeppoon Annual Average Rainfall is (BOM) = 982.5mm
2012 Yeppoon 976.8mm
2014:1114.2mm

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby clarkap » Thu Mar 02, 2017 8:32 am

Great Lightning storm in Forrestfield last night.

Fingers crossed for a rerun today :)

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby adamD » Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:48 pm

Seems summer has arrived instead in Autumn.
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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby Cyclone Alby » Fri Apr 07, 2017 10:50 am

Cooler temps down here at moment.
Margaret River

2011 YTD 1056.2 mm
2012 YTD 716.6 mm
2013 YTD 1174.6 mm :)
2014 YTD 840.2mm
2015 YTD 798.8mm

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby Pete » Fri May 12, 2017 10:37 pm

Well, our first strong cold front of the season is due this weekend. Most modelling is in agreement for a crossing after 5pm, more likely between 7pm - 11pm. Due to the nature of the broad circulation around the deep low pressure system associated with it, I suspect more frontal boundaries will develop as winds shift W'ly behind the initial front, and then more S/SW as a new ridge of high pressure pushes in behind it early next week.

Image
(Fig 2)
Image
(Fig 3)
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A strong jet stream aloft (Fig 3) will create what's termed in the Southern Hemisphere as negative vorticty advection (Fig 2), where strong winds aloft pull air upward from the surface, causing the pressure to drop. Hence, air rises from the forced lifting mechanism. Now, when strong vorticty advection occurs above low level moisture and instability (In this case, instability in the form of forced lifting from the frontal boundary), then severe weather is likely to occur.
Given the system is a polar-orientated low, then it would be safe to assume damaging wind gusts may occur ahead, on, and behind the frontal boundary, about the lower southwest coasts, the capes and near the western south coast.
Rainfall looks average for this kind of system, maybe 20mm+ for western and coastal areas. Any thunderstorms will be short-lived away from the southwest and southern coastal districts, because of strong shear vs weak CAPE combined with forced lifting. Cells will develop rapidly in the area of negative vorticity (several forced lifting mechanisms combined with latent heat release), but they'll be ripped apart by 80+ knots shear above 600mb. Temperature lapse rates are steeper near the south coast, which enhances updraft strength and prolongs thunderstorm life.

To sum up, Sunday's front will cross the west coast during the late afternoon, reaching Perth between 7pm and midnight at this stage. We can expect a period of heavy showers and gusty winds and the chance of isolated flash and rumble with the frontal boundary. Gusty winds and showers will persist in it's wake, and I expect a second frontal boundary/trough to develop in the cold, unstable air behind it. Decent falls can be expected in the lower southwest.

The models look good for the next two weeks, keen to keep analyzing these systems in further depth as they become more likely.

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby supersmell » Sat May 13, 2017 4:11 pm

Excellent Pete this is the sort of stuff i miss on here. Was always great to read & learn from people with far more knowledge than ive got keep it coming
Cheers

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby Pete » Sun May 14, 2017 3:07 pm

supersmell wrote:Excellent Pete this is the sort of stuff i miss on here. Was always great to read & learn from people with far more knowledge than ive got keep it coming
Cheers



No worries! I'll be on here more often as I my degree progresses. :)

Sharp dewpoint increase over the metro in the last hour, marking the arrival of the prefrontal trough. The higher DPs and forced lifting from the trough have formed a line of cells oriented N/S moving due east.
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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby Tasman » Sun May 14, 2017 3:38 pm

Same here as Super, thanks Pete.

Just a few spits here in the last half hour.. wind picking up nicely.

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby Pete » Sun May 14, 2017 3:39 pm

Image

Second frontal boundary shaping up nicely in the cold, unstable air mass behind the main front.

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby Pete » Sun May 14, 2017 7:30 pm

Cape Leeuwin recorded a 100km/h wind gust at 6:56pm.

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby adamD » Wed May 31, 2017 8:01 pm

The horrible strong high pressure systems are back. Lets hope this week is the last dry week. I am not expecting much later in the week in terms of rainfall. Even fronts we got during summer are stronger than the one coming later this week.
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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby Cmon Aussie Cmon » Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:33 am

The long range models are quite worrysome indeed. I'm calling it early but by the middle of June we will be sitting on 5mm and a 22c average maximum. The Bureau's 3 month outlook suggests we are in for a frustrating winter.

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby Vinny » Sun Jun 04, 2017 6:37 am

25 deg in June wtf that's warmer than here .
Yeppoon Annual Average Rainfall is (BOM) = 982.5mm
2012 Yeppoon 976.8mm
2014:1114.2mm

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Re: 2017 Weather Discussion

Postby adamD » Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:27 pm

Vinny wrote:25 deg in June wtf that's warmer than here .


Actually warmer than a few days in last summer.
Image

This shows that it's mainly been in the positive for the last couple weeks. The dip into the negatives was around the same time Melbourne copped those strong fronts. Not going too good here, seem to be missing everything here. I really think this Winter could give 2006 a run for it's money.

Also the way this year gone so far bar that tropical low back in February, wouldn't be surprised the high to the east stays there longer than forecast and the system for next weekend ends up slipping away to the south leaving us with a forecast of Shower or Two.
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