All Hail 'August'us 2011

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Pete » Wed Aug 10, 2011 2:58 pm

Cold, wet and windy weather looms for Perth
Alex Zadnik, Wednesday August 10, 2011 - 10:38 EST

While Perth is having a brief break from the winter rains, the signs are good for significant
falls over the next seven days, with a surge of cold, wet and windy weather on the way.

So far this winter, Perth has recorded 376.6mm of rainfall, which is almost double that at
the same stage last year (193.6mm). While we are still down on the long-term average of
479mm, there is still a great deal of promise that we will reach this mark before August is
through.

The next significant burst of rain will reach Perth during Saturday evening with a cold
front. This will quickly be followed by a second round of showers on Sunday morning as a
low pressure system moves through. Widespread 15-30mm falls can be expected along
the west coast, from Shark Bay in the north to Albany in the south. Strong winds are also
expected to be a feature across the weekend, especially for the Lower West, South West
and South Coastal districts.

This rainfall will be followed up on Monday night and Tuesday as another powerful cold
front delivers a burst of heavy showers and strong winds. It also looks like being extremely
cold on Tuesday, with a blast of Antarctic air surging in behind the front.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2011


Tuesday's cold pool looks very deep at this stage, GFS going for 500hPa temps of -24C as far north as Perth and nudging -31C near the south coast. Could be some moderate snow falls on Bluff Knoll during Tuesday if the 850hPa temps get a bit colder.

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All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Fu Manchu » Wed Aug 10, 2011 6:28 pm

This from WaterCorp today.
28 billion litres of inflow in the dams this winter! good but still below the average of 42 billion litres

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Cyclone Alby » Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:30 pm

Big_Pete wrote:
Cold, wet and windy weather looms for Perth
Alex Zadnik, Wednesday August 10, 2011 - 10:38 EST

While Perth is having a brief break from the winter rains, the signs are good for significant
falls over the next seven days, with a surge of cold, wet and windy weather on the way.

So far this winter, Perth has recorded 376.6mm of rainfall, which is almost double that at
the same stage last year (193.6mm). While we are still down on the long-term average of
479mm, there is still a great deal of promise that we will reach this mark before August is
through.

The next significant burst of rain will reach Perth during Saturday evening with a cold
front. This will quickly be followed by a second round of showers on Sunday morning as a
low pressure system moves through. Widespread 15-30mm falls can be expected along
the west coast, from Shark Bay in the north to Albany in the south. Strong winds are also
expected to be a feature across the weekend, especially for the Lower West, South West
and South Coastal districts.

This rainfall will be followed up on Monday night and Tuesday as another powerful cold
front delivers a burst of heavy showers and strong winds. It also looks like being extremely
cold on Tuesday, with a blast of Antarctic air surging in behind the front.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2011


Tuesday's cold pool looks very deep at this stage, GFS going for 500hPa temps of -24C as far north as Perth and nudging -31C near the south coast. Could be some moderate snow falls on Bluff Knoll during Tuesday if the 850hPa temps get a bit colder.


:D

Yeah mon and tue looking good at the moment
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2011 YTD 1056.2 mm
2012 YTD 716.6 mm
2013 YTD 1174.6 mm :)
2014 YTD 840.2mm
2015 YTD 798.8mm

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Pete » Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:38 pm

Just an update on the cold pool.

Image

:shock: Don't think I've ever seen one that deep before. Hope the models hold.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby BigStorm » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:16 pm

:shock: WOW that is one hell of a forecast model. Looking at it we could potentially see snow in the hills of Perth. Will be interesting to see how much that changes in the next 3-4 days though.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby stokesy » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:35 pm

Wasn't there a day long long time ago when Perth had a really cold max temp in the single digits & snow was falling but melting before it hit the ground? I believe I heard people in the high rises in Perth could see it. :?:
Or I could be high?! :lol:
I do doubt however that the Perth hills would get snow, just couldn't see it happen. But nice if it did. :D

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Benni.G. » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:06 pm

stokesy wrote:Wasn't there a day long long time ago when Perth had a really cold max temp in the single digits & snow was falling but melting before it hit the ground? I believe I heard people in the high rises in Perth could see it. :?:
Or I could be high?! :lol:
I do doubt however that the Perth hills would get snow, just couldn't see it happen. But nice if it did. :D

November 1992? Sleet was recorded or observed at Double view. I could see the possibilty of snow at somewhere like Mt Dale?
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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Duideka » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:11 pm

In November?? :shock:

All I found on BOM:
In southwestern Australia, there have been several occasions when wheatbelt towns have received a ground covering of snow. 26 June 1956 was particularly noteworthy, with low level snowfalls extending well north of Perth. Perhaps even more outstanding - because of the timing - were the snowfalls of 19 November 1992: virtually on the eve of summer, strong southerlies brought snow to many southern wheatbelt areas.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Cmon Aussie Cmon » Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:13 am

Struggeling to warm up here.. thanks to the cloud cover. Still 13 degrees.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Pete » Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:16 am

Sunny here, no wind at all. 12.1 degrees at my place and 13.4 degrees at the Airport. Got down to 4.8 degrees here and 3.6 degrees at the Airport.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Lert » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:30 pm

Duideka wrote:In November?? :shock:

All I found on BOM:
In southwestern Australia, there have been several occasions when wheatbelt towns have received a ground covering of snow. 26 June 1956 was particularly noteworthy, with low level snowfalls extending well north of Perth. Perhaps even more outstanding - because of the timing - were the snowfalls of 19 November 1992: virtually on the eve of summer, strong southerlies brought snow to many southern wheatbelt areas.


IIRC the temperature was 9c at 2pm that day.. brrrr
2006 - 543.5mm, 2007 - 701.5mm, 2008 - 833.5mm, 2009 - 579mm, 2010 - 631.5mm, 2011 - 872.5mm, 2012 - 770mm

2013 Jan 5mm YTD 5mm

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Blue Skies » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:55 pm

Lert wrote:
Duideka wrote:In November?? :shock:

All I found on BOM:
In southwestern Australia, there have been several occasions when wheatbelt towns have received a ground covering of snow. 26 June 1956 was particularly noteworthy, with low level snowfalls extending well north of Perth. Perhaps even more outstanding - because of the timing - were the snowfalls of 19 November 1992: virtually on the eve of summer, strong southerlies brought snow to many southern wheatbelt areas.


IIRC the temperature was 9c at 2pm that day.. brrrr


Yup, November. I mostly remember the windy cold front but there was a lot of gossip about snow in the suburbs at the time. And I'm sure I've seen sleet here before on a number of occasions, once in April, but it melts so quickly you don't realise what it is.
2013 rainfall: 910.1mm
August: 138.7 mm to 30th 2014 YTD: 687.7 mm

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby @weather_wa » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:54 pm

I remember that day, I remember there were reports of light snow in the hills.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Pete » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:17 pm

http://www.weatherchannel.com.au/main-m ... 10811.aspx

Two strong cold-fronts are approaching the south-west region of Western Australia and are expected to bring wet, wild and windy weather over the weekend into next week.

The first front is expected to arrive by Saturday and sweep across the region through Sunday followed by yet another cold front on Tuesday.

During this time, severe weather warnings are likely for damaging winds, heavy rain as well as possible thunderstorms and flash flooding.

Four-day rainfall totals may be around 25-50mm between Sunday and Tuesday with lighter falls of 10-15mm over the Central Wheatbelt district.

This winter, the south-west region of Western Australia has received consistent cold-fronts bringing regular rainfall to the region compared to the below-average rainfall that was recorded in the area last year.

The region, including Perth, receives most of its rainfall during the winter months with its Mediterranean climate of hot, dry summers and cool, wet winters.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby floppy » Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:38 am

6:30 am Friday morning and its 6.6 degrees, clear skies with just a very light breeze

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when you least expect the most

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Pete » Fri Aug 12, 2011 10:32 am

Tomorrow's cold front is developing nicely on the satellite loop. :)

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... njava.html

Also GFS now predicting a deep cold pool to follow this system, though only affecting the south coast. Tuesday's cold pool still looks hopeful as there'll be a strong S/SW change behind the Tuesday's front so it may push it further north and east than GFS is predicting at the moment. :)

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby @weather_wa » Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:14 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Perth Forecast
Issued at 11:20 am WST on Friday 12 August 2011

Warning summary
Nil.

Forecast for Friday
Sunny. Light to moderate NE winds.

Precis: Sunny.
City: Max 21
Mandurah: Max 19

UV Alert: 10:40 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]
Fire Danger: Coastal Plain: NOT RATED
Hills: NOT RATED

Forecast for Saturday
A shower or two, increasing mid to late afternoon and evening with the risk of a
thunderstorm. Freshening N/NW winds, gusty at times in the afternoon ahead of a
gusty W'ly change during the evening.

Precis: Shower or two increasing later.
City: Min 10 Max 22
Mandurah: Min 10 Max 21

Sunday Shower or two. Min 11 Max 19
Monday Showers increasing, windy. Min 12 Max 20
Tuesday Showers easing. Min 10 Max 17
Wednesday Mostly sunny. Min 6 Max 18
Thursday Mostly sunny. Min 4 Max 19

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm WST Friday.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Vinny » Fri Aug 12, 2011 4:40 pm

If they are "strong fronts" why are the BOM only going for shower or two's tomorrow and Sunday :?
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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby peterperthh » Fri Aug 12, 2011 4:48 pm

Whats up with the BOM access model displayed on Weatherzone?

I have noticed over the past few weeks (including today), the rainfall at different times is wildly excessive or no rain at all,
or the isobars are too tightly packed and the next day not packed at all.

It it weatherzone? Or does the model run fail or something?

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Pete » Fri Aug 12, 2011 5:46 pm

I think it might be Weatherzone. I noticed it as well, a few runs before it was showing excessive rainfall off the west coast with tomorrow's front then it had disappeared in the next run, ect. BoM's models on their site have been pretty consistent. :)
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... ndex.shtml

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