All Hail 'August'us 2011

BigStorm

Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby BigStorm » Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:39 pm

Vinny wrote:If they are "strong fronts" why are the BOM only going for shower or two's tomorrow and Sunday :?

Where did u get a shower or 2 from for Tomorrow ?.
Showers increasing with a possible storm tomorrow and the front will move through tomorrow night so we will just be in the westerly stream on Sunday. The next front wont move through tilll later on Monday.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby floppy » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:41 pm

for those that might want to watch something a little different in the sky
the perseid meteor shower is in full swing - and the further north you live the better, but basically look north early in the morning. Anywhere from about 4:30 am onwards is good, the constellation Perseus is due north around 6:15 am and at it's highest in the sky.

from http://spaceweather.com/
The best time to look is Saturday morning, Aug. 13, just before dawn when the Moon is low and meteor rates are peaking.


now for those wanting to try a little photography
wide angle lenses with long open shutter - 30 seconds or more

Nev
you can never always sometimes tell
when you least expect the most

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Cmon Aussie Cmon » Fri Aug 12, 2011 8:40 pm

Thanks for that Nev. Should be good in Geraldton then.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Vinny » Fri Aug 12, 2011 10:09 pm

BigStorm wrote:
Vinny wrote:If they are "strong fronts" why are the BOM only going for shower or two's tomorrow and Sunday :?

Where did u get a shower or 2 from for Tomorrow ?.
Showers increasing with a possible storm tomorrow and the front will move through tomorrow night so we will just be in the westerly stream on Sunday. The next front wont move through tilll later on Monday.


Perth Forecast
Issued at 4:30 pm WST on Friday 12 August 2011

Forecast for Saturday
A shower or two, increasing mid to late afternoon and evening with the risk of a
thunderstorm.

Sunday Shower or two. Min 11 Max 19

What is weird is on the www.bom.gov.au home page it lists Perth as 23 deg tomorrow but if you click on Perth on the main page it lists 22 deg !
Yeppoon Annual Average Rainfall is (BOM) = 982.5mm
2012 Yeppoon 976.8mm
2014:1114.2mm

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Vinny » Fri Aug 12, 2011 10:14 pm

Ok just checked on the west australian state forecast it has 23 deg, same on weatherzone

on the perth forecast page it has 22 deg.

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/state.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/perth.shtml

Still not as bad as the 10 deg night error in January, the snowfalls clearing icon on w zone last year for Perth or that 33 deg for Mandurah the other day.
Yeppoon Annual Average Rainfall is (BOM) = 982.5mm
2012 Yeppoon 976.8mm
2014:1114.2mm

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Vinny » Fri Aug 12, 2011 10:16 pm

SYNOPTIC SITUATION AND FORECAST EXPLANATION:
A weak ridge of high pressure lies south of the state with a band of middle
level cloud over the SE Gascoyne, Goldfields and western Eucla bringing some
patchy rain with light falls. The band will clear the state during Friday night.
A cold front will move over the southwest of the state during Saturday. Isolated
showers ahead of the front initially about the west coast, extending east to
reach the western Goldfields and SW Gascoyne Saturday night. Showers tending
scattered for a period with the passage of the front with isolated thunderstorms
likely over central and southern parts of the SW Land Division. The front should
lie near the SW Capes late afternoon and near Geraldton to Bremer Bay near
midnight before contracting southeast early Sunday morning.

FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS:
By sunrise Sunday the cold front will lie over the Goldfields and Eucla, with
isolated showers or patchy light rain southwest of a line Exmouth to Eyre,
clearing from inland and eastern parts of the SW Land Division by early Sunday
afternoon. Isolated showers lingering over the Lower West and Southwest
districts in a fresh W'ly flow.
Patchy light rain is likely in a band of middle level cloud extending from the
NW Gascoyne over the northern Goldfields to the Eucla during Monday, contracting
to the SW Interior during the afternoon and evening. Another cold front will
also reach the Southwest district towards Monday evening. Isolated showers in
western districts during the morning, increasing to scattered showers and
isolated squally thunderstorms southwest of a line Lancelin to Albany during the
afternoon and evening. Isolated showers extend to remaining areas southwest of a
line Carnarvon to Hopetoun during Monday afternoon and evening and to southwest
of a line Shark Bay to Israelite Bay during the early hours of Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms extending over southern districts Monday
night and Tuesday morning.
Isolated showers southwest of a line Carnarvon to Eucla will contract to near
coastal parts south of Dongara early Tuesday afternoon as a ridge of high
pressure develops over western districts during Tuesday. The remnants of the
band of middle level cloud over the southern Interior may produce isolated light
showers or patchy rain before clearing during Tuesday afternoon.
Yeppoon Annual Average Rainfall is (BOM) = 982.5mm
2012 Yeppoon 976.8mm
2014:1114.2mm

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All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:02 am

Hey Vinny.
The front coming through might just be about wind than rainfall. Even severe fronts can have low rainfall associated with them.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby BigStorm » Sat Aug 13, 2011 8:58 am

I'm thinking 50mm+ between now and Wednesday morning (after the 2 fronts have gone through). If that happens we will be well on the way to getting the average for the month, that is if we dont have a massive high killing of the fronts for the last 2 weeks of the month.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Cmon Aussie Cmon » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:07 am

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/wa-b ... ange/18544

WA braces for a cold, wet and windy change
Noel Hanna, Saturday August 13, 2011 - 11:42 EST

A series of cold fronts are set to bring significant wind and rain to WA this weekend and early next week.

The southern jetstream is starting to take shape to Australia's southwest and will feed moisture into a trough over WA and direct multiple cold fronts across the south.

The first front will move in tonight with widespread falls of 15-30mm expected along the west coast, from Shark Bay in the north to Albany in the south. Conditions will ease briefly on Sunday before a second strong front moves in later on Monday. This front will bring the coldest air and an additional 10-20mm.

These fronts will sweep right across southern WA, bringing widespread falls of 5-10mm from the Wheat Belt to the Goldfields and the Eucla. The Lower West and Southwest will experience the highest rainfall totals this week, with 4-day falls approaching 50mm.

This amount of rain will be good news if it reaches Perth's water storages, currently at just 21.7%, down on 29.4% at the same time last year.

The wet weather won't last long though. A high moving in from the Indian Ocean on Wednesday will clear skies and bring a period of drier weather for the rest of the week.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2011

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Pete » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:15 am

In relation to Tuesday's cold pool, its only three days out now and GFS has remained fairly consistent. The potential for decent snow falls on Bluff Knoll/Stirling Ranges early Tuesday morning. Snow chase anyone? :)
Image
Image

Even the 700mb uppers look pretty cold as well, into the -12C range. Perth may see some hail Tuesday morning as well. :)
Bluff Knoll snow forecast: http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Bl ... l/6day/top

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Pete » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:29 am

http://www.weatherchannel.com.au/main-m ... 30811.aspx

Skies to light up in WA
Image


Severe weather will darken skies across south-west Western Australia as cold front sweeps through the region this afternoon.

The first sign of the front will come in the form of isolated showers along coastal areas of the south-west, before the wet weather extends inland during the afternoon.

Perth should see around 5-10mm of rain from this system although the heaviest falls of up to 25mm will be in the South West district. By this evening, widespread showers will extend into the western and southern Gascoyne, the South West Land Division and the far south-west Goldfields.

The cold front is also likely to bring squally thunderstorms to areas south-west of a line from Lancelin to Albany this evening.

At 9:00am WST, a Gale Warning was current for coastal waters between Cape Naturaliste and Bremer Bay and as the weather intensifies, severe weather warnings are likely to be issued in the far south-west of the state later today.

Looking ahead, a second cold front is expected to bring another round of severe weather to the country’s south-west on Monday.

Stay up to date with the latest warnings at The Weather Channel and in the case of an emergency, contact the SES on 132 500.

Ben Domensino
© The Weather Channel

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby jcantelo » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:20 am

Im going to miss this front unfortunately :(
Would've loved to drive to Bluff Knoll for some potential snow on the peak.

I will have to endure 30C and Karijini NP, I guess its not that bad.

Amazing really when you think about it. Potential snow and high 20s-low 30s all in the same state. AWESOME
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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Fu Manchu » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:30 am

Very true dat.

Karijini, yeah well...mmmm :lol: Not a bad trade off at all :D

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Duideka » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:34 am

jcantelo wrote:Amazing really when you think about it. Potential snow and high 20s-low 30s all in the same state. AWESOME


Figured I'd check up what it's going to be where my dad is when you mentioned that.....
Image

35c high, 12c low in the SAME DAY? That's really something!

-edit- and this is in WA.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby ozzie » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:38 am

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
For Locally Dangerous Winds

For people in parts of WA west of a line from Kalbarri to Beacon to Kellerberrin
to Mandurah. This includes people in, near or between Kalbarri, Geraldton,
Jurien Bay, Dalwallinu, York, Perth and Mandurah.
Issued at 11:30 am on Saturday 13 August 2011

The passage of a cold front this evening will cause squally conditions and may
produce locally destructive winds in excess of 125 kilometres per hour that
could result in significant damage or destruction of property.

FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises people to secure loose items, move
vehicles under cover and stay inside away from windows. If there is lightning
unplug electrical appliances and avoid using landline telephones. If caught
outside find shelter away from trees, powerlines, storm water drains and
streams. If driving through heavy rain slow down and turn your lights on or if
visibility becomes low pull over and park until it passes. For SES assistance
call 132 500. For more safety tips visit www.fesa.wa.gov.au


The next warning will be issued by 5:00pm Saturday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 213.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby ozzie » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:38 am

Weird SWW only extends down to Mandurah :O

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Cmon Aussie Cmon » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:41 am

ozzie wrote:Weird SWW only extends down to Mandurah :O

Yeah just about to post that.

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby peterperthh » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:47 am

I would love to know the explanation for the SWW being on for the northern lower west and central west.

Unless there will be a seperate SWW issued for the South West district?

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Vinny » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:50 am

Up to 23 degrees in the city, wonder if it will hit 24 deg, the highest reached so far this winter in June.
Yeppoon Annual Average Rainfall is (BOM) = 982.5mm
2012 Yeppoon 976.8mm
2014:1114.2mm

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Re: All Hail 'August'us 2011

Postby Pete » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:56 am

Just got the severe weather thread going, so please post there when referring directly to this event. :wink:
viewtopic.php?f=3&p=43479#p43479

I wonder if the SWW be updated to include the southwest later. Strange as you'd think the capes would cop the brunt of this front. :?

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