Tim S wrote:
here's the forecast track map for the record too:
Attachment:
IDW60280.gif
Looks like they expect it to cross the coast about the same spot as Laurence did as a cat 5 a little over a month ago
This is quite interesting, from the BoM's technical bulletin for Magda:
Quote:
Motion should be slowly to the southeast, initially under the influence of
strong monsoon westerlies to the north of the system and weak flow to the south.
In the longer term the system is likely to slow as it approaches the coast and
then track to the southwest under the influence of an anticyclone strengthening
to the southeast as midlatitude troughs relax. However the steering pattern is
complex and the relative strength of monsoonal flow in models appears to be a
deciding factor in the resultant model tracks. Some models/ensemble runs provide
an alternate scenario that involves a weaker system translating on a more
eastwards track, staying north of the Kimberley coast and tracking towards the
Top End. The official forecast track is based on a consensus of model runs that
do not include this scenario but the track uncertainty takes this scenario into
account.
Anyone know what an 'ensemble run' is?
Well Tim, this is what JTWC has to say
The Comments are very similar for a change
.
WTXS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.7S 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.1S 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.9S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.7S 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.4S 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.2S 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.9S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 122.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MAGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
201705Z AMSR-E IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AND
HINTS AT POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THIS AMSR-E IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES
AND APRF OF 45 KNOTS (PGTW IS AT 35 KNOTS) BASED ON THE MICROWAVE
EYE SIGNATURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED WITH
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, DOES INDICATE
SLIGHT PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TC 08S IS SLOWLY TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, PROVIDING A
WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AT A 15 KNOT PER DAY RATE BUT THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE OCCURRING IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 192051Z JAN 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 192100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN
MJ.
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