TC Bianca and the SW - from 26th January 2011 -

[EOS]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Issued at 11:43 pm WST Saturday 29 January 2011.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

[Fu Manchu]

Looking at the latest loop, I think this will cross sooner rather than later?
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDE00902.loop.shtml

[adamD]

Looking at the latest loop, I think this will cross sooner rather than later?
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDE00902.loop.shtml

Im thinking the same too

C'mon Socceroo's!

[EOS]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Issued at 2:56 am WST Sunday 30 January 2011.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

[Tim S]

I am not sure why BoM are still calling this low a Tropical Cyclone, there is no way it is still a tropical cyclone now, wouldn't have been a tropical cyclone after about 6-9pm last night. TCs don't have a completely exposed center and have all of the associated convection well away from that center. I guess calling it what it actually is would confuse people too much as they don't seem to have any idea about what a cyclone is nevermind an extra-tropical one.

Still looks like packing a fair punch though, the main thing will be the swell, most beaches aren't used to getting a NW swell of around 4m, so I feel the most damage will be done by this, in associated with the high tide (due early evening for most regions). Wind looks like being strong but not as bad as it could have been, 100km/hr gusts is only a moderately strong winter cold front.

As for timing, the low itself still looks on track, it may arrive an hour or two earlier than the expected time (around sunset tonight) however all the action is well in front of the low now. As Fu said this is already starting to effect the SW corner, although can't see it being too exciting, especially for places north of a line Busselton to Albany.

[EOS]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Abnormally High Tides
For people in coastal areas between Jurien Bay and Dunsborough, including the
Perth metropolitan area, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
Issued at 6:10 am on Sunday 30 January 2011

WEATHER SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Bianca, [Category 1] located 435 kilometres west northwest of
Perth at 5 am, is weakening rapidly as it approaches the coast. It is expected
to weaken below cyclone intensity before it reaches the coast. Although damaging
winds are not expected the TIDE will rise HIGHER THAN NORMAL due to the high
water levels generated by Bianca. By evening the tides are expected to be above
the level of the highest astronomical tide and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS may result, particularly in Geographe Bay.

Swells may lead to DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS and as the tide rises, COASTAL
EROSION is possible.

WHAT TO DO
FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises boat owners to make sure their boats
are securely moored. People involved in coastal and boating activities should
exercise caution.
For more safety tips visit http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au

The next warning will be issued by midday Sunday.

[EOS]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Issued at 6:17 am WST Sunday 30 January 2011.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml




The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany, including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton has been CANCELLED.

Bianca is rapidly weakening and is expected to be below cyclone intensity today before it reaches the coast.

However, tides between Jurien Bay and Dunsborough will be higher than normal and are likely to rise above the highest astronomical tide level on Sunday evening. ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS SURF, COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS are possible. Please refer to the Severe Weather Warning [IDW28001] for further information.

Heavy rainfall is expected south of a line Bunbury to Albany this morning however extensive flooding is not expected.

Please refer to Fire Weather Warning [IDW30000] for further information regarding the Very High to Severe Fire Dangers near the west coast north of Bunbury and through the Central Wheat Belt.

[EOS]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 48
Issued at 6:10 am WST on Sunday 30 January 2011

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany, including
Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton has been CANCELLED.

At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 1 was estimated to be
435 kilometres west northwest of Perth moving east southeast at 23 kilometres
per hour.

Bianca is rapidly weakening and is expected to be below cyclone intensity today
before it reaches the coast.

However, tides between Jurien Bay and Dunsborough will be higher than normal
and are likely to rise above the highest astronomical tide level on Sunday
evening. ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS SURF, COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING of LOW LYING
COASTAL AREAS are possible. Please refer to the Severe Weather Warning
[IDW28001] for further information.

Heavy rainfall is expected south of a line Bunbury to Albany this morning
however extensive flooding is not expected.

Please refer to Fire Weather Warning [IDW30000] for further information
regarding the Very High to Severe Fire Dangers near the west coast north of
Bunbury and through the Central Wheat Belt.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 31.1 degrees South 111.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 23 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

No further advices will be issued for this system.

[von-Kármán]

Yep, probably nothing left in her when she crosses. I've uploaded a timelapse video of yesterday's storm in the other thread if anyone cares

[brayden]

Well looks like shes died alot overnight, cloud all going to the south through margs riv. area. I saw the forecast track map and thought awesome perth is gonna get something but no lol.

[Fu Manchu]

Just quietly, ex TC Bianca couldn't rip the skin off custard by the look of things.
Shear and cold SST has done its work on her pretty well.

[Nocky]

What storm down this way which I likened to a cyclone, some pics and story here viewtopic.php?f=34&t=1227 will try and get some other pics today

[Fu Manchu]

Looks like poor Bianca has had her top ripped off and scattered over the SW and South coast, with the surface low still off the Lower west coast now

[adamD]

Just quietly, ex TC Bianca couldn't rip the skin off custard by the look of things.
Shear and cold SST has done its work on her pretty well.

Yes a little too well. Now 998hPa, will be 1004hPa when it finally reaches Perth, which wont produce anything stronger than a normal seabreeze on the coast.

[von-Kármán]

You can still see her circulation on the visible sat loop, and she is heading for Perth
There is a bunch of very low level cloud around the centre which is not showing up on the IR loop because it must be very warm.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite ... mg=sat_vis

Vis Shot: Taken 50minutes ago


IR Shot: taken 50 minutes ago

[Fu Manchu]

IDW28001
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia



TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Abnormally High Tides
For people in coastal areas between Jurien Bay and Dunsborough, including the
Perth metropolitan area, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
Issued at 1:30 pm on Sunday 30 January 2011

WEATHER SITUATION
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Bianca is located 270 kilometres west northwest of Perth at
1 pm, and is continuing to weaken as it approaches the coast. Although there
will be no severe weather, the TIDE will rise HIGHER THAN NORMAL due to the high
water levels generated by Bianca. By evening the tides are expected to be above
the level of the highest astronomical tide and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS may result, particularly in Geographe Bay.

Although Bianca will be weak when it reaches the coast, winds may become strong
and squally for a period north of Mandurah during the afternoon.

WHAT TO DO
FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises boat owners to make sure their boats
are securely moored. People involved in coastal and boating activities should
exercise caution.
For more safety tips visit www.fesa.wa.gov.au

The next warning will be issued by 6 pm Sunday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 213.

[EOS]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia



TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Abnormally High Tides
For people in coastal areas between Jurien Bay and Dunsborough, including the
Perth metropolitan area, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
Issued at 5:50 pm on Sunday 30 January 2011

WEATHER SITUATION
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located 160 kilometres west of Perth at 5:00 pm,
and is continuing to weaken as it approaches the coast. Although there will be
no severe weather, the TIDE will rise HIGHER THAN NORMAL due to the high water
levels generated by Bianca. By evening the tides are expected to be above the
level of the highest astronomical tide and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS
may result, particularly in Geographe Bay.

WHAT TO DO
FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises boat owners to make sure their boats
are securely moored. People involved in coastal and boating activities should
exercise caution.
For more safety tips visit www.fesa.wa.gov.au

The next warning will be issued by 11 pm Sunday.

[Cyclone Alby]

Quess marg's won't see any storms to roll through at all

[Fu Manchu]

Does anyone know what we have happening in the latest hi res imag loop? Building higher cloud over centre of low

[Rainbow Bright]

Tide seems to be higher than normal at Freo ... Radar doesn't seem to be working